TopStep Email Alert; Bullish Soybean historcial pattern

 

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COTLive.com -- Top Step Email Alert. For: ___Soybeans in Sept___
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TRADING IN COMMODITY FUTURES OR OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL
RISK OF LOSS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

Beans seldom make new contract highs in Sept but when they do they have continued the rally into Nov and eventually into the next year.  There has been 7-years since 1960 that the beans have done this; three of the seven lead into mega bulls (1964,1972, 2007). In 1980, the market made highs into the end of the year and 1981 was immediate bear, making March lows. But the common theme was that it didn't fall into the bear market at least that year. And only one year, 1980 was drought / frost year.

Farmer's are trapped in their mindset that their big crops MUST break the market.  Sadly, the memories are so short, as 2008 did the same thing; large crops and the market was a rocket ship.  Index funds have not backed off much and what they have the small funds have exhorted.  Global conditions are hard to trade and in reality it's a distraction.  The charts will tell you what's going on with the big traders.  "80,000,000 million new mouths to feed every year!"  The markets have changed over last 5 years! Money is leaving the stock market in droves as the current Government Administration have not yet grasped the importance of being pro business.  Hopefully, as in the Clinton's first couple of years, this Administration become more moderate in their actions. If not, the commodities will find themselves in strong hands as the inevitable inflation cycle will begin to kick in.

You may want to review the historical bean charts to understand the makeup of the potential move we're setting up.  http://www.cotlive.com/COT/hischart.htm  Most of these years had bearish reactions that lead to buying opportunities, many had some bearish teeth that just couldn't follow through.  Using May Options strategies can be helpful.  Never over trade and never pick a top!   As learned in 2008 we live in record breaking times!