Triangle breakout should cause new highs in beans. News is bullish and is now starting to show more below off the wire.
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TRADING IN COMMODITY FUTURES OR OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL
RISK OF LOSS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
RISK OF LOSS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
SUDDEN DEATH SYNDROME HITS IOWA SOYBEAN CROP
>>
>> By Gary Wulf
>>
>> Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
>>
>> Most soybean fields in Iowa--a state normally ranked as one of
>> the nation's top-two producers of that important oilseed--are
>> currently under siege from Sudden Death Syndrome, a dramatically
>> named plant disease that often slashes harvest yields by 20% to 60%.
>>
>> "Over 50% of soybean fields are affected in Iowa, based on the
>> survey we did," said Iowa State University plant pathologist X.B.
>> Yang, widely considered one of the world's leading experts on
>> soybean disease. "Illinois, southern Minnesota, eastern Nebraska
>> [soybean fields] will be affected with less degree."
>>
>> Although SDS is caused by a soil fungus, [Fusarium virguliforme]
>> that infects soybean roots early in the growing season, symptoms
>> do not become apparent until July/August, first appearing as
>> yellowish spots on foliage. All infected leaves eventually wither
>> and die, killing the plant outright.
>>
>> "The worst infestations appear to be in central/eastern Iowa,
>> extending into northern/central Illinois. One observer near Peoria
>> said this was the first case of SDS that he had ever witnessed in
>> his vicinity," said Marion, Iowa-based market consultant Rich
>> Balvanz of AMS Commodities. "Unlike some years, when SDS is
>> limited to minor spots within a field, whole fields are being
>> affected by the condition, which results in premature death of
>> plants at the same time that pods are in the critical filling stage."
>>
>> Yang said in an interview Tuesday that 2010 is, "easily one of
>> the top 1 or 2 worst years for SDS since it was first discovered
>> in 1994. Some fields are toasted [completely dead]."
>>
>> Growers with fields infected by SDS have little recourse, apart
>> from rotating to a different crop, as no fungicides exist to
>> battle the disease and no soybean varieties exhibit complete
>> resistance to SDS. The disease is exacerbated by exceptionally
>> early plantings in wet soil, exactly the type of field conditions
>> which prevailed across the Midwestern grain belt this spring.
>>
>> "Losses vary from field to field ... depending at what
>> growth-stage the disease shows up and how large of an area is
>> affected," Yang said. "I have seen losses as high as 30 bushels
>> per acre. Generally severe premature defoliation can lead to 10 bushel losses."
>>
>> The U.S. Department of Agriculture last week predicted that Iowa
>> soybean farmers would harvest average yields of 51 bushels an
>> acre, equal to last year, and the second-highest for any state in
>> 2010, trailing only Nebraska. Total bean production in Iowa was
>> penciled in at nearly 518 million bushels, equaling 15% of the
>> entire U.S. crop of 3.43 billion bushels.
>>
>> Although national soy crop scores published Monday by the USDA
>> remained unchanged from a week previous, the amount of Iowa bean
>> acreage deemed worthy of classification as 'good' or 'excellent'
>> tumbled 4 percentage points, to 69%.
>>
>> "State-by-state [soybean yield] projections showed a decline of
>> about three-tenths of a bushel [in national soybean yields], with
>> significant set backs noted, due to too much rain in Iowa," said
>> Farm Futures analyst Bryce Knorr.
>>
>> Analysts feel any shortfall in Iowa yields may ultimately have
>> major consequences for the soybean market.
>>
>> "Iowa has experienced the worst case of sudden death in 16
>> years. In addition, the heat that engulfed much of the Midwest the
>> last few weeks may have taken the top-end yield off of what
>> appeared to be outstanding-looking beans," warned the
>> Stewart-Peterson Group. "The question now is whether or not the
>> yield can actually average 44 bushels," an acre nationwide, the
>> level of the USDA's latest U.S. soybean yield-forecast.
>>
>> Market analyst Mike Zuzolo of Global Comodity Analytics &
>> Consulting LLC, calculates that the loss of 150 million bushels in
>> U.S. soybean yield would induce a rise of "45 to 50 cents a bushel
>> in November CBOT futures, assuming the USDA's current 2010/11
>> soybean carryover forecast of 360 million bushels is correct.
>>
>> "But we know that the trade has already discounted that
>> ending-stocks forecast ... and is probably trading a carryover of
>> 225 million to 250 million bushels ... otherwise soybean [futures]
>> prices would be closer to $8, rather than $10.50," he said.
>>
>> By Gary Wulf
>>
>> Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
>>
>> Most soybean fields in Iowa--a state normally ranked as one of
>> the nation's top-two producers of that important oilseed--are
>> currently under siege from Sudden Death Syndrome, a dramatically
>> named plant disease that often slashes harvest yields by 20% to 60%.
>>
>> "Over 50% of soybean fields are affected in Iowa, based on the
>> survey we did," said Iowa State University plant pathologist X.B.
>> Yang, widely considered one of the world's leading experts on
>> soybean disease. "Illinois, southern Minnesota, eastern Nebraska
>> [soybean fields] will be affected with less degree."
>>
>> Although SDS is caused by a soil fungus, [Fusarium virguliforme]
>> that infects soybean roots early in the growing season, symptoms
>> do not become apparent until July/August, first appearing as
>> yellowish spots on foliage. All infected leaves eventually wither
>> and die, killing the plant outright.
>>
>> "The worst infestations appear to be in central/eastern Iowa,
>> extending into northern/central Illinois. One observer near Peoria
>> said this was the first case of SDS that he had ever witnessed in
>> his vicinity," said Marion, Iowa-based market consultant Rich
>> Balvanz of AMS Commodities. "Unlike some years, when SDS is
>> limited to minor spots within a field, whole fields are being
>> affected by the condition, which results in premature death of
>> plants at the same time that pods are in the critical filling stage."
>>
>> Yang said in an interview Tuesday that 2010 is, "easily one of
>> the top 1 or 2 worst years for SDS since it was first discovered
>> in 1994. Some fields are toasted [completely dead]."
>>
>> Growers with fields infected by SDS have little recourse, apart
>> from rotating to a different crop, as no fungicides exist to
>> battle the disease and no soybean varieties exhibit complete
>> resistance to SDS. The disease is exacerbated by exceptionally
>> early plantings in wet soil, exactly the type of field conditions
>> which prevailed across the Midwestern grain belt this spring.
>>
>> "Losses vary from field to field ... depending at what
>> growth-stage the disease shows up and how large of an area is
>> affected," Yang said. "I have seen losses as high as 30 bushels
>> per acre. Generally severe premature defoliation can lead to 10 bushel losses."
>>
>> The U.S. Department of Agriculture last week predicted that Iowa
>> soybean farmers would harvest average yields of 51 bushels an
>> acre, equal to last year, and the second-highest for any state in
>> 2010, trailing only Nebraska. Total bean production in Iowa was
>> penciled in at nearly 518 million bushels, equaling 15% of the
>> entire U.S. crop of 3.43 billion bushels.
>>
>> Although national soy crop scores published Monday by the USDA
>> remained unchanged from a week previous, the amount of Iowa bean
>> acreage deemed worthy of classification as 'good' or 'excellent'
>> tumbled 4 percentage points, to 69%.
>>
>> "State-by-state [soybean yield] projections showed a decline of
>> about three-tenths of a bushel [in national soybean yields], with
>> significant set backs noted, due to too much rain in Iowa," said
>> Farm Futures analyst Bryce Knorr.
>>
>> Analysts feel any shortfall in Iowa yields may ultimately have
>> major consequences for the soybean market.
>>
>> "Iowa has experienced the worst case of sudden death in 16
>> years. In addition, the heat that engulfed much of the Midwest the
>> last few weeks may have taken the top-end yield off of what
>> appeared to be outstanding-looking beans," warned the
>> Stewart-Peterson Group. "The question now is whether or not the
>> yield can actually average 44 bushels," an acre nationwide, the
>> level of the USDA's latest U.S. soybean yield-forecast.
>>
>> Market analyst Mike Zuzolo of Global Comodity Analytics &
>> Consulting LLC, calculates that the loss of 150 million bushels in
>> U.S. soybean yield would induce a rise of "45 to 50 cents a bushel
>> in November CBOT futures, assuming the USDA's current 2010/11
>> soybean carryover forecast of 360 million bushels is correct.
>>
>> "But we know that the trade has already discounted that
>> ending-stocks forecast ... and is probably trading a carryover of
>> 225 million to 250 million bushels ... otherwise soybean [futures]
>> prices would be closer to $8, rather than $10.50," he said.
