TRADING IN COMMODITY FUTURES OR OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL
RISK OF LOSS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
Comments
I talked to an Illinois farmer last night who told me his farm was estimated at 210 bu/acre corn. They got it harvested and it turned out at 140 bu/acre....Also too, here in Ontario we're in a drought, if its the same in the E Corn Belt, there will be obvious yield reductions. However, I drove from Detroit, to Chicago to Rockford through Wisconsin to Minneapolis recently and corn look better than 165 bu/acre. So I dunno, I'm still wondering where the corn went from last year!
Posted by Philip Shaw at 1:04PM CDT 09/01/10
I think the USDA numbers are to high for corn production. I farm in the southeast, where the corn crop matured early and we had above average temperatutures for June. The result was lower yeilds and I under stand some of the western states have suffered simler conditions.
Posted by ANDIE CRAVEN at 1:33PM CDT 09/01/10
The corn from last year never was. Low test wt, and very poor overall condition of the crop caused most farmers to liquidate stocks months ago when it was found that the corn would not keep in the bin in May. THis year's crop is not there either. I live and farm in Northern IL with close ties to Christian Co IL. I travel the state frequently for family reasons, and the Dekalb Co and the Sandwich area crops will not produce big bushels either. There is too much hype of 160+ averages - some small appelations will get a good crop, but test wts from last year's poor seed quality and low seed tests have infected this year's potential across the most prolific growing areas (central IL, IN, and IA). WIth IA and IL being the hardest hit. I had 16 inches of rain in two days in July, and then 88-92 degree heat. Killed any yield potential. Tip back - ears aborting the kernals at the top of the ear is everywhere in my fields. I know the crop will not reach 160 avg - NO way. I do not know much about the irrigated crops in NE or KS, but the normal growing areas where 200+ corn is grown - will barely make 150 at best. That does not average in well, and I see a 152-155 national average, hence leaving the estimated exports short close to a half-billion bushels. THe warm weather is also stealing bushels from us as mother nature dehydrates the crop hourly. One final thought - poor quality corn last year produced marginal seed for the 2010 crop. THe research might have been in the sead but the genetics did not hold up under the strain of last year's adverse weather. This year will also test the sturdiness of the genetics. I will be looking for seed that stood up under the stress. M
Posted by Michael Dechy at 2:17PM CDT 09/01/10
Our corn looks good but the heat from this summer seems to be affecting ear fill out so we will have to see.The beans are what we are seeing to be a real problem.SDS is a real issue here in Northern Ill. and the affected plants have few or no pods.Iowa seems to also be having major problems with SDS so why do yield estimates keep going up?
Posted by Bill Alber at 9:10PM CDT 09/01/10
what about the firm ?who got this right last year. what are they saying?
Posted by andy spaeth at 6:42AM CDT 09/02/10
Weather continues to be an issue in central Michigan as well. Mt Pleasant got 5 1/2 inches of rain in an hour or so a few weeks back yet 5 miles away got nothing. That has ben the story all year. Some got rain, some didn't. Those who did generally got it hard and fast. Much of hte corn is in the silo already and it tooks extra acres to do it. Beans are yellow and losing leaves every day. Lots of pods butr nothing in them. I would be surprised if yeilds are even near average for either. On the bright side, at least crops should dry down this year. Most corn came off in the upper 20's last year and test weight was very low. Lets hope the test weight goes up this year.
